to a decade unrealized

January 4th, 2010 • posts i've written

Dear Two-Thousand-Teens,

You’re the unborn son/daughter of an entire world – what a heap of expectations – that’s the bad news, unfortunately.

The good news? Well, it’s an amazing time to be alive. And there are so many amazing people to be alive with who are dedicated to making the world a better place during your time with us.

Oh, and the technology… It’s an amazing time to be alive with a pair of thumbs. And you have 6.7 billion pairs of them (give or take a few unfortunate accidents).

But the most fascinating tech isn’t what’s in our hands, it’s what’s in our heads. We, the once predictors of rocket cars, summer vacations on Mars, and robotic sexual partners, we the over-achievers and over-dreamers, we’ve begun to fail at predicting the new pace of technology. Our wildest dreams are now in our nearest grasp.

From Ray Kurzweil, he of the Singularity,

Progress is exponential–not just a measure of power of computation, number of Internet nodes, and magnetic spots on a hard disk–the rate of paradigm shift is itself accelerating, doubling every decade. Scientists look at a problem and they intuitively conclude that since we’ve solved 1 percent over the last year, it’ll therefore be one hundred years until the problem is exhausted: but the rate of progress doubles every decade, and the power of the information tools (in price-performance, resolution, bandwidth, and so on) doubles every year. People, even scientists, don’t grasp exponential growth. During the first decade of the human genome project, we only solved 2 percent of the problem, but we solved the remaining 98 percent in five years.

But Two-Thousand-Teens, let’s not lump you in as the next decade. You’re more than that. You’re our second chance at a new century. We’ve stumbled, we’ve lost the faith in ourselves, we’ve made promises we knew we couldn’t keep, and we’ve spoiled the first few blank pages of our masterpiece. But that’s why you’re here. Again, expectations… but in this endeavor, you are not alone.

But, Two-Thousand-Teens, we have our work cut out for ourselves.

Between 1910 and 1920:

• Thomas Edison demonstrated the first talking motion picture.
• Motorized movie cameras were invented, replacing hand-cranked cameras.
• The crossword puzzle was invented by Arthur Wynne.
• Mary Phelps Jacob invented the bra.
• Gideon Sundback invented the modern zipper.
• Stainless steel was invented by Henry Brearly.
• The pop-up toaster invented by Charles Strite.
• Short-wave radio was invented.
• Wilhelm Roentgen discovered X-rays.
• Marie Curie won the Nobel Prize for chemistry, discovering a new source called radium.
• Einstein published his general theory of relativity.

From the most banal experiences of the 21st century to the most sublime, much of the foundation was put in place during that second decade of the 20th century. It’s the same story again – the world we want to build, the society we want to live in, the future we want to dream, it all begins right now.

Like you, our dreams are yet unrealized and perhaps even undreamt. Two-Thousand-Teens, remind us to be hopeful, to be bold, to make ridiculous predictions, and to attempt foolish feats. To borrow a phrase, remind us that he not busy being born is busy dying.

To the inhabitants of the Two-Thousand Teens, let us not make another resolution for another year. Let us make a resolution for the 21st century and let’s use our time here to realize it. For perhaps the first time in our modern history, our vision is small compared to our grasp. Our culture is afflicted with short term thinking, quarterly demands, and our obsession with the present. It’s our future that matters most.

And let us have the strength to weather our mistakes and our misfortunes.

The phrase too big to fail was perhaps first uttered right before the Titanic embarked and sank in those icy waters in 1912.

World War I, the Great War, The War to End All Wars… well, didn’t. But within the decade it took with it over 16 million lives and 16 million possibilities for a different world.

Two-Thousand-Teens, we’ll never know who among us will have the pleasure of seeing you through. But while we’re here, it’s a pleasure to have you, and a pleasure to be your partner.

I promise not to take you for granted.

Tags: 2010, future, time

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