Human-Agent Collectives

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predictions

We call this emerging class of systems human-agent collectives (HACs) to reflect the close partnership and the flexible social interactions between the humans and the computers. As well as exhibiting increased autonomy, such systems are inherently open and social. This openness means participants need to continually and flexibly establish and manage a range of social relationships. Thus, depending on the task at hand, different constellations of people, resources, and information must come together, operate in a coordinated fashion, and then disband.

Source.

I’ve been working on my investing theses for the next 30 years (not that I have much to invest). I believe institutions that do the following three things will prevail over all others (on a long enough timeline):

  1. CONFIDENCE: They dramatically reduce uncertainty for their customers and constituents (and they are transparent about what uncertainty is impossible to reduce)
  2. ADAPTIVITY: They rapidly reorganize themselves to capitalize on time-constrained opportunities
  3. CONNECTIVITY: They assemble, link to, and uncouple from networks of humans, technology, and information with little friction

What do you think?

Measuring Your Ability to Change

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orgdesign

 

If you find yourself in need of an ounce of liquor, just ask your barkeep for a pony.

Plan on driving home for Christmas break? Say 230 miles? That’ll increase your risk of dying by one micromort. And that enormous 7-layer dip your auntie makes, how many Royal Albert Hall’s is that?

How long will a user wait for a webpage to load? Generally, a nanocentury.

How’s that parcel of land you just bought? Did the realtor give you its Mother Cow Index before you signed the deed?

I wonder how many Banana Equivalent Doses of radiation the man sitting in front of the x-ray machine at the airport is exposed to every day. More or less than I’m exposed to on every flight?

When something is worth measuring, we tend to start measuring it any way we can. A foot becomes a foot. A hand becomes a hand.

We help organizations with a social purpose thrive in dynamic and even volatile conditions — so that they can continue to pursue a shared prosperity with their employees, customers, and communities. The ability to change becomes their competitive advantage. We call it The Evolutionary Edge.

We can’t intelligently impact what we can’t measure.

We’ve been obsessed with the task of better measuring an organization’s ability to adapt as well as our impact on that ability for years now. Organizational evolution takes time, longer than a quarterly earnings report might show, so we needed a way to measure progress between financial impacts.

What we’ve built is a survey and analysis instrument we call the EEQ — or Evolutionary Edge Quotient. It takes most respondents only five minutes to complete, and you can start by distributing it to just one team or department. For us, we’re able to learn in 3 days what once took us 30. It’s that powerful.

Give it a share if you find it worth sharing. Also, feel free to send us thoughts on how you might improve it.

Conspicuous Authenticity

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predictions / quotes

But by the turn of the millennium cool had ceased to be credible as a political stance, and we have since seen yet another shift, from conspicuous non-conformity to what we can call “conspicuous authenticity.” The trick now is to subtly demonstrate that while you may have a job, a family, and a house full of stuff, you are not spiritually connected to any of it. What matters now is not just buying things, it is taking time for you, to create a life focused on your unique needs and that reflects your particular taste and sensibility. 

The next status game is another rejection of status game.

Criticism at Pixar

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orgdesign / quotes

Pixar Founder, Ed Catmull, shares his secret to improving creative works and fueling the most prolific hit-maker of our times: The Braintrust.

You may be thinking, How is the Braintrust different from any other feedback mechanism? There are two key differences, as I see it. The first is that the Braintrust is made up of people with a deep understanding of storytelling, who usually have been through the process themselves. While the directors welcome critiques from many sources, they particularly prize feedback from fellow storytellers. The second difference is that the Braintrust has no authority. The director does not have to follow any of the specific suggestions. After a Braintrust meeting, it is up to him or her to figure out how to address the feedback. Giving the Braintrust no power to mandate solutions affects the dynamics of the group in ways I believe are essential.

Rarely in our organizations are we exposed to a peer group whose job it is to help us make our work better, without power or authority to force their opinions upon us.

The Corporate Algorithm

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orgdesign

I hypothesize that the management overhead which makes corporations grow sub-linearly is due to the limited information processing capability of individual humans. People at the top do not have local on-the-ground information: how are individual products performing, what are customers’ complaints etc. And the rank-and-file folks on the ground do not have the relevant high-level information: how does what I’m doing translate to the value that the corporation as a whole seeks to maximize? In fact, the the flow of value and information is so complex that employees have pretty much given up on determining that relationship, and know of it only at a macro P&L-center level. […] An algorithm will have no such problems with acting on both global as well as fine-grained local information. In fact, I suspect that the more information it gets to act on, the better decisions it will make, making automatic corporations grow super-linearly.

This is what a Google Software Engineer thinks of the organization of today and the possibilities for tomorrow. We are in violent agreement.

Innovating the Edge

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orgdesign

Finally, at the end of the meeting, Donahoe came to a decision: “Alright,” he said, addressing Abraham and Palmer, “you guys have carte blanche to do this. Any resources you need, any money, any human capital, you’ve got it. The only thing that I ask is that you don’t tell anyone about what you’re doing.” […] Within moments, the two of them were at a laptop, scouring eBay’s internal site for offices around the world where they could work completely under the radar.

This is a fascinating story about how eBay struggled to innovate and eventually won out. Punctuated evolution requires innovation at the edges. Find yourself a multi-disciplinary squad, put them in a room together, give them implicit permission, shut the door, stand guard.

On Transparency

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orgdesign

First of all, everything we do is in service of a single goal: transparency. We’ve discovered over time that most of our difficulties arise when a project becomes murky or goes dark. Design is a holistic practice and we can only truly design for the entire product when we can see across it with ease. In addition to making our own work easier, transparency also gives designers a chance to cross-collaborate on projects that they’re interested in or that impact the thing they’re working on. We frequently have designers on different teams identify overlapping work and get together all on their own without any prompting from myself or the other design managers. Transparency is magical in that way and can make or break a project or a growing team.

Cap Watkins, Senior Product Design Manager at Etsy.

Price and Disruption

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orgdesign

Most entrepreneurs still think that just because their technology is superior it will inevitably be widely adopted in the marketplace. But consumers don’t work like that. Next time you come across an engineer aiming to commercialize a superior new technology, ask if his industry meets the criteria described above. If not, he’d do much better to focus on low-end disruption by encapsulating the technology in a product that is in some way simpler, more convenient – and seriously more affordable— than anything currently on the market. After all, technologies don’t dictate how they must be commercialized, managers do.

In an HBR piece, Juan Pablo Vazquez Sampere details four criteria of when high-end disruptive products are more likely to succeed. They are:

  1. When the majority of consumers are dissatisfied with their current choices. (tends to occur most in highly regulated industries)
  2. The industry is fragmented – and therefore no single player has majority control over who can enter and compete.
  3. The new entrant is fully integrated from the beginning. They are focused on re-imagining the whole process, not just one component.
  4. The new entrant uses a completely different distribution model than its competitors, and therefore bypasses where legacy players tend to have the most competitive power.

Tesla is the obvious poster boy for meeting all four criteria.

When Culture Rejects Change

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orgdesign

Three former executives said the old regime seized on the bad numbers to cast Hanson’s tech-focused ambitions in a dubious light. They said Markfield, in particular, felt that Hanson cared too much about developing AE’s web and mobile operations, and feared that expanding in outlets and internationally, while lucrative, might dilute the core brand. Markfield was also no fan of Hanson’s emphasis on personalization — for example, curating merchandise in stores based on the type of customers who shopped there. Indeed, it was a relatively new way of doing things, especially for someone who came of age in retail during the ’80s and ’90s and considered a mainline store as the most important way to communicate a brand. Markfield felt those stores were being neglected, these people said. […] “The sense was, ‘Oh, there’s this new fancy office in San Francisco, these fancy people have engineering backgrounds from Stanford, where does that leave me?’” said the second former manager. “People just felt threatened and unsure of it, definitely for the executives, because it was Robert bringing on this team of strong executives to fix and do things that we needed to do.”

Buzzfeed offers an engaging read into the cultural trials which eventually stopped American Eagle’s last CEO, Robert Hanson, dead in his tracks. Knowing the right thing to do and knowing the right way to do it are two completely different problems, and the latter is much harder (and even more dependent on context) than the first. Hindsight is 20/20, but I would suggest to any leader experiencing this sort of cultural friction to do the following:

  1. Develop a Visionary Purpose with your leadership team that is informed by the realities of your customer, competitors, and technology at hand. Visionary Purposes sound like, “be Earth’s most customer-centric company” (Amazon), “accelerate the advent of sustainable transport” (Tesla), and “make the world more open and connected” (Facebook). Repeat this vision until you’re blue in the face.
  2. Set realistic time horizons. In a public company, there’s no greater weapon to wield against a change agent than quarterly earnings. It took Steve Jobs three years after his return in 1997 before he had a measurable impact on Apple’s stock price, and that’s without having to worry about slow-to-turn retail stores. Lasting change is a 5-7 year project for any organization and any dips or leaps in the interim cannot themselves, alone, demonstrate momentum (or lack thereof).
  3. Scale the edges. Find opportunities to innovate in a safe-to-fail environment and scale them as they succeed. In other words, don’t try to turn the biggest ship when you have the smallest rudder.
  4. Propagandize. Every win, even the smallest, has to become a loud and unmissable signal of the change to come.
  5. Grow a tribe. Before you even have a win, build a cult of the curious. As wins stack up, convert more followers. Your goal is to flip more dominos in your favor, every day.
  6. Outlast your detractors. Remember, endurance is everything and that the spoils of transforming a public company can make you the stuff of legends.

 

Airbnb on Culture

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orgdesign

Why is culture so important to a business? Here is a simple way to frame it. The stronger the culture, the less process a company needs. When the culture is strong, you can trust everyone to do the right thing. People can be independent and autonomous. They can be entrepreneurial. And if we have a company that is entrepreneurial in spirit, we will be able to take our next “(wo)man on the moon” leap. Ever notice how families or tribes don’t require much process? That is because there is such a strong trust and culture that it supersedes any process. In organizations (or even in a society) where culture is weak, you need an abundance of heavy, precise rules and processes.

From Brian Chesky, CEO of Airbnb.

You Don’t Create Culture

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orgdesign

You don’t create a culture. Culture happens. It’s the by-product of consistent behavior. If you encourage people to share, and you give them the freedom to share, then sharing will be built into your culture. If you reward trust then trust will be built into your culture. Artificial cultures are instant. They’re big bangs made of mission statements, declarations, and rules. They are obvious, ugly, and plastic. Artificial culture is paint. Real cultures are built over time. They’re the result of action, reaction, and truth. They are nuanced, beautiful, and authentic. Real culture is patina.

Jason Fried.

Don’t Let Process Become the Goal

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orgdesign

Don’t let the process become the goal. As we try to think about our own process at Percolate I want to make sure we don’t end up down this road. As a company grows it’s natural for people to desire more documentation, clarification, and general process, and all of those are good things. However, as you go down the road of designing process you always run the risk of losing sight of the real objectives, which for Percolate is about building amazing products that transform what it means to be a marketer.

Noah Brier shares some thinking on building his company, Percolate.

In most companies, creating process is a helluva lot easier than removing it. I’m a fan of dedicating roles to simplification; evaluating process from evidence and gutting what no longer provides impact to the firm’s desired outcomes.

The Least Powerful CEO

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orgdesign

As its name implies, Supercell is organized as a collection of small, independent teams called cells tasked with developing new games or building new deep features for existing games. Cells are given complete autonomy in terms of how they organize themselves, prioritize ideas, distribute work and determine what they ultimately produce. Describing himself as the “world’s least powerful CEO”, Ilkka encourages cells to exercise extreme independence and prides himself on having no creative control over them once they are constituted. The company as a whole is merely an aggregation of these cells; a Supercell.

How the fastest growing company ever does it.